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If this kicked off in January, there could be at least six camps. As well as Theresa May, there would be Conservative loyalists seeking to establish whether the majority could be reconstructed simply by replacing her.
There would be hardline Leavers looking to establish a no-deal government. Jeremy Corbyn would be looking to form a Labour minority government. There would be unreconciled Remainers looking to relitigate the referendum.
And there would be some MPs who would simply want the general election straight away. Perhaps there would be other camps.
These groups would overlap and different MPs would have different second and third preferences. Institutionally the two main party leaders would have strong advantages because they are entitled to call on the loyalty of their nominal Parliamentary supporters.
In practice both would struggle more than usual. Theresa May has already had a visible demonstration of the lack of confidence of over a third of her MPs.
Jeremy Corbyn could only wish for such levels of loyalty. Theresa May does not need to step down. If no other candidate in her judgement looks likely to command a majority she could in theory try to see the clock tick down and proceed to a general election.
Theresa May has always used time as a weapon. She might do so again. In practice my assessment of Theresa May, a woman who appears to feel her duty keenly, is that if she could not form a government she would not stand in the way of a candidate who stood a fair chance.
It would be her responsibility as Prime Minister to advise the Queen on who she should call for next. I expect she would do so according to her best assessment of the lay of the land.
As an instinctive conservative, she would want to help the monarchy as best she could. Theresa May could not be expected to hurry to that point though: It would not help Jeremy Corbyn if the time established that he was not going to able to command a majority: Conversely, extra time might help the unreconciled Remainers whose support spans four or more parties in identifying a potential candidate to lead them and a prospectus to sell to possible supporters.
The experience of the Labour leadership challenge is that on the Labour side at least those MPs are poorly organised when time is of the essence.
They chose a weak candidate by a shambolic process who was comfortably defeated — perhaps they have planned better this time around but candidly I doubt it.
This is perhaps their biggest obstacle — if they are to persuade foot soldiers of the two main parties to work with them, they are going to need to offer someone who they will feel good about getting behind even on a limited prospectus.
The problem is easier to identify than the solution. The party hierarchies would have time to issue such threats as they thought would be effective.
We would soon find out what was left of party discipline. With the stakes so high, my guess is that both parties would find their structures under severe strain.
A lot of briefing and disinformation would be done through the media during this period. For that reason, we should consider now what different groupings really want or would settle for.
For example, what would the DUP like best? My guess is that they would be very happy to have another general election to see the clock tick down on a no-deal Brexit and will vote accordingly — some of the hardline Leave Conservative MPs might well try to do the same thing.
What about the SNP? They have a hard call to make — do they seek to support Jeremy Corbyn as the rope supports the hanged man, do they support a fresh referendum establishing the principle that generations can be very short indeed, or, like the DUP, do they also seek a general election with all the chaos that would produce?
On balance I think they will look for a fresh referendum, but I might easily be wrong about that. And what of the quiet pragmatic MPs in both main parties?
Would they countenance an outcome that led to no deal Brexit? They would have a huge decision: She is not a chess piece, she has agency. If she is unable to form a government on her own terms, her own second or third preference might ultimately prove crucial.
Might she ultimately offer herself as a temporary Prime Minister to effect a second referendum? It might solve several problems at once, while creating many more.
What, ultimately, is her best alternative to a negotiated agreement in these circumstances? It would be, I confess, utterly fascinating.
The temptation to put pennies on the railway lines, just to see what would happen, must be enormous for deeply unhappy MPs. The risk of a train wreck would be huge.
However split on Brexit the Tories might be that is not causing blue to red voting moves. So GE, if it happens, is not going to be a piece of cake for Labour.
Theresa May is more popular through the first thirty months of her tenure than Thatcher and Cameron. Are the Brexit red lines about to break?
View market Tradefair 28 January Leave a comment. View market Max Liu 27 January Leave a comment. Trump presidency in mortal danger after shutdown humiliation Are we witness the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency?
View market Paul Krishnamurty 26 January Leave a comment. The race to challenge Trump hots up Could a year-old mayor from the rust belt replace Donald Trump as President?
View market Tradefair 24 January Leave a comment. A General Election in ? View market Paul Krishnamurty 21 January Leave a comment.
Time for talking or time running out as Brexit looms? The following markets are political in nature due to controversy revolving around the National Anthem.
The NFL has made headlines recently for their players sitting or kneeling during the National Anthem.
Notice how ridiculous some of these are. Can you imagine Trump having his face added to Mount Rushmore? But given all that Trump has said and done, can you put this sort of thing past him?
Some of these are interesting, too — like shipping the Statue of Liberty back. Others are entertaining as well, including who will win the Presidential Election.
But this gives you an idea of the variety of political markets revolving around other countries that are more serious.
So, many of the following tips I found from bettors much smarter than myself. The first set of tips comes from BestBettingOnline.
The following are the things you need to consider when betting on politics:. You want to look to both the past and the future.
How close is the scandal to the election? Will it hurt the candidate in question …or help them? They say not to use the news or social media for your facts, because they often get them wrong.
You should look up the facts yourself. Not only that, but does the public believe that the candidate can and will do what they say?
But they may at least help you make more correct predictions than wrong ones. Experts also say you should wait to place your bets until closer to the election, event, etc.The anonymous grinding mills of policy and administration rarely inspire enthusiasm, much less devotion. Thank goodness they fifa 15 jetzt spielen the money, power, and status, hollywood casino columbus job fair help them cope with it. Could the EU could be prepared to remove some of the perceived barriers that europäische torjägerliste stopped the UK from passing the Brexit deal torschützenliste em Parliament? Trump to visit North Korea during his first term in office. In response to a question from blast spielen audience, he said he has not had any contact with other potential candidates about joining a presidential ticket. Kroatien spanien prognose Nancy Pelosi prepares to take grand victoria casino upcoming events the House of Representatives, does it mark a turning point for the Trump administration? She is not a chess piece, she has agency. Indeed, nachtkönig of these options are highly problematic vow englisch. How many times will Donald Trump tweet on a drei größten städte deutschlands date. Are the Brexit red lines about to break?